Antrim Mid: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Antrim Mid: Overview

Projection: DUP seat

Implied MP at 2017:	Ian Paisley (DUP)
County/Area:	Antrim (Northern Ireland)
Electorate:	69,572
Turnout:	63.9%

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
DUP	24,226	54.5%
SF	7,858	17.7%
UUP	4,777	10.8%
SDLP	2,653	6.0%
Alliance	2,483	5.6%
MIN	2,433	5.5%
OTH	6	0.0%
DUP Majority	16,368	36.8%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Antrim Mid been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Antrim Mid: Map

List of old seats forming part of Antrim Mid

The old seat(s) needed are:

Antrim East
Antrim North
Antrim South

Old seat: Antrim East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Abbey	1,321	Belfast North	16	56	510	176	0	92	0	21	871
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ballyduff	810	Antrim East	78	7	277	61	0	27	0	11	461
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Carnmoney Hill	367	Belfast North	10	6	148	31	0	16	0	5	216
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Jordanstown	2,245	Antrim East	221	20	700	287	0	74	0	30	1,332
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Monkstown	2,221	Belfast North	232	25	893	246	0	90	0	38	1,524
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Rostulla	2,429	Antrim East	295	28	967	450	0	102	0	42	1,884
Causeway Coast and Glens	Lurigethan	2,088	Antrim East	24	145	599	79	0	371	0	32	1,250
Causeway Coast and Glens	Torr Head and Rathlin	855	Causeway	17	54	241	29	0	140	0	12	493
Mid and East Antrim	Ballycarry and Glynn	2,593	Antrim East	262	22	814	191	0	81	0	34	1,404
Mid and East Antrim	Boneybefore	2,367	Antrim East	162	23	764	219	0	81	0	35	1,284
Mid and East Antrim	Burleigh Hill	2,199	Antrim East	209	19	726	185	0	69	0	29	1,237
Mid and East Antrim	Cairncastle	2,599	Antrim East	147	144	727	207	0	135	0	32	1,392
Mid and East Antrim	Carnlough and Glenarm	2,223	Antrim East	54	144	655	81	0	372	0	32	1,338
Mid and East Antrim	Castle	2,601	Antrim East	72	29	968	325	0	102	0	47	1,543
Mid and East Antrim	Craigyhill	2,528	Antrim East	125	77	1,013	216	0	240	0	46	1,717
Mid and East Antrim	Curran and Inver	2,446	Antrim East	275	23	800	187	0	146	0	36	1,467
Mid and East Antrim	Gardenmore	2,468	Antrim East	92	102	803	193	0	205	0	36	1,431
Mid and East Antrim	Glenwhirry	196	Antrim Mid	9	6	82	6	0	8	0	3	114
Mid and East Antrim	Gortalee	2,316	Antrim East	198	22	824	241	0	80	0	33	1,398
Mid and East Antrim	Greenisland	2,341	Antrim East	221	21	745	292	0	76	0	31	1,386
Mid and East Antrim	Islandmagee	2,331	Antrim East	248	22	745	244	0	79	0	33	1,371
Mid and East Antrim	Kilroot	2,862	Antrim East	183	33	1,126	301	0	119	0	52	1,814
Mid and East Antrim	Kilwaughter	2,919	Antrim East	337	28	983	221	0	101	0	43	1,713
Mid and East Antrim	Love Lane	2,430	Antrim East	118	26	875	233	0	93	0	41	1,386
Mid and East Antrim	Slemish	269	Antrim Mid	10	8	106	8	0	12	0	3	147
Mid and East Antrim	Sunnylands	2,618	Antrim East	219	31	1,160	244	0	110	0	47	1,811
Mid and East Antrim	The Maidens	2,501	Antrim East	126	79	891	158	0	258	0	41	1,553
Mid and East Antrim	Victoria	2,632	Antrim East	95	31	1,028	285	0	109	0	48	1,596
Mid and East Antrim	Whitehead South	2,522	Antrim East	213	23	807	344	0	85	0	35	1,507
Mid and East Antrim	Woodburn	2,610	Antrim East	257	23	898	206	0	84	0	35	1,503
	Total	62,907		4,525	1,277	21,875	5,946	0	3,557	0	963	38,143

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Antrim North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Causeway Coast and Glens	Ballycastle	2,345	Causeway	46	147	678	69	0	522	86	0	1,548
Causeway Coast and Glens	Ballymoney East	2,139	Causeway	132	21	907	89	0	177	97	0	1,423
Causeway Coast and Glens	Ballymoney North	2,467	Causeway	142	33	924	112	0	184	99	0	1,494
Causeway Coast and Glens	Ballymoney South	2,176	Causeway	129	20	876	67	0	195	94	0	1,381
Causeway Coast and Glens	Clogh Mills	2,621	Antrim Mid	124	91	886	69	0	414	108	0	1,692
Causeway Coast and Glens	Dervock	2,389	Causeway	175	41	1,060	106	0	136	116	0	1,634
Causeway Coast and Glens	Dunloy	2,478	Antrim Mid	71	148	689	41	0	530	74	0	1,553
Causeway Coast and Glens	Giant's Causeway	2,432	Causeway	166	34	1,001	104	0	128	111	0	1,544
Causeway Coast and Glens	Kinbane	2,562	Causeway	99	131	787	63	0	406	95	0	1,581
Causeway Coast and Glens	Loughguile and Stranocum	2,502	Antrim Mid	100	141	768	45	0	486	92	0	1,632
Causeway Coast and Glens	Rasharkin	2,583	Antrim Mid	123	105	890	53	0	475	108	0	1,754
Causeway Coast and Glens	Route	2,307	Causeway	141	25	930	118	0	157	98	0	1,469
Causeway Coast and Glens	Torr Head and Rathlin	1,691	Causeway	45	96	457	27	0	342	56	0	1,023
Mid and East Antrim	Academy	2,096	Antrim Mid	93	114	740	99	0	97	82	0	1,225
Mid and East Antrim	Ahoghill	2,559	Antrim Mid	171	24	1,011	123	0	150	114	0	1,593
Mid and East Antrim	Ardeevin	2,329	Antrim Mid	80	169	909	180	0	127	110	0	1,575
Mid and East Antrim	Ballee and Harryville	2,284	Antrim Mid	97	22	1,087	58	0	119	104	0	1,487
Mid and East Antrim	Ballykeel	2,145	Antrim Mid	56	58	995	59	0	132	152	0	1,452
Mid and East Antrim	Braidwater	2,085	Antrim Mid	19	172	764	52	0	356	102	0	1,465
Mid and East Antrim	Broughshane	2,633	Antrim Mid	140	35	1,091	94	0	116	98	0	1,574
Mid and East Antrim	Castle Demesne	2,017	Antrim Mid	25	135	920	97	0	144	181	0	1,502
Mid and East Antrim	Cullybackey	2,030	Antrim Mid	141	20	836	77	0	125	95	0	1,294
Mid and East Antrim	Fair Green	2,010	Antrim Mid	25	219	963	100	0	346	136	0	1,789
Mid and East Antrim	Galgorm	2,355	Antrim Mid	143	21	871	167	0	114	97	0	1,413
Mid and East Antrim	Glenravel	2,430	Antrim Mid	68	157	691	41	0	462	60	0	1,479
Mid and East Antrim	Glenwhirry	2,068	Antrim Mid	113	42	877	58	0	94	79	0	1,263
Mid and East Antrim	Grange	2,614	Antrim Mid	127	21	788	116	0	387	97	0	1,536
Mid and East Antrim	Kells	2,401	Antrim Mid	138	26	1,080	74	0	114	96	0	1,528
Mid and East Antrim	Kirkinriola	2,227	Antrim Mid	121	57	924	71	0	101	84	0	1,358
Mid and East Antrim	Maine	2,260	Antrim Mid	139	20	815	80	0	193	93	0	1,340
Mid and East Antrim	Park	2,123	Antrim Mid	67	169	788	88	0	115	110	0	1,337
Mid and East Antrim	Portglenone	2,303	Antrim Mid	121	19	721	69	0	348	88	0	1,366
Mid and East Antrim	Slemish	1,998	Antrim Mid	104	41	795	56	0	86	73	0	1,155
	Total	75,659		3,481	2,574	28,519	2,722	0	7,878	3,285	0	48,459

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Antrim South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Aldergrove	2,526	Antrim South	562	171	677	149	0	328	0	0	1,887
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Antrim Centre	2,585	Antrim South	500	114	573	129	0	293	0	0	1,609
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ballyclare East	2,582	Antrim East	629	25	837	148	0	180	0	0	1,819
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ballyclare West	2,649	Antrim East	553	20	694	102	0	141	0	0	1,510
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ballyduff	1,516	Antrim East	320	11	400	85	0	85	0	0	901
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ballyhenry	1,033	Belfast North	189	28	229	74	0	94	0	0	614
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ballynure	2,521	Antrim East	566	18	643	103	0	128	0	0	1,458
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ballyrobert	2,471	Antrim East	569	18	662	94	0	131	0	0	1,474
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Burnthill	2,065	Belfast North	390	20	559	131	0	143	0	0	1,243
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Carnmoney	1,890	Belfast North	360	22	474	107	0	137	0	0	1,100
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Carnmoney Hill	259	Belfast North	32	2	93	17	0	15	0	0	159
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Clady	2,491	Antrim South	497	121	442	50	0	306	0	0	1,416
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Cranfield	2,302	Antrim Mid	346	121	509	78	0	363	0	0	1,417
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Crumlin	2,459	Antrim South	381	156	372	34	0	779	0	0	1,722
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Doagh	2,391	Antrim Mid	573	18	616	116	0	130	0	0	1,453
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Fairview	2,112	Antrim East	487	17	558	151	0	129	0	0	1,342
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Fountain Hill	2,092	Antrim South	472	98	502	148	0	127	0	0	1,347
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Greystone	1,936	Antrim South	426	45	625	117	0	151	0	0	1,364
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Hightown	766	Belfast North	123	32	141	46	0	126	0	0	468
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Jordanstown	173	Antrim East	42	1	39	15	0	10	0	0	107
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Mallusk	3,220	Antrim South	678	184	604	157	0	412	0	0	2,035
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Mossley	2,504	Antrim East	564	20	708	157	0	153	0	0	1,602
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Parkgate	2,367	Antrim Mid	426	62	631	99	0	109	0	0	1,327
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Randalstown	2,379	Antrim Mid	318	141	482	73	0	575	0	0	1,589
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Shilvodan	2,458	Antrim Mid	395	126	554	103	0	304	0	0	1,482
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Springfarm	2,927	Antrim South	661	192	721	223	0	346	0	0	2,143
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Steeple	2,137	Antrim South	510	45	732	138	0	148	0	0	1,573
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Stiles	2,358	Antrim South	445	115	604	162	0	340	0	0	1,666
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Templepatrick	2,422	Antrim South	523	81	530	104	0	117	0	0	1,355
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Toome	2,543	Antrim Mid	294	145	347	33	0	726	0	0	1,545
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Glenavy	2,396	Antrim South	281	139	504	34	0	594	0	0	1,552
Lisburn and Castlereagh	Stonyford	1,710	Antrim South	190	55	443	28	0	179	0	0	895
	Total	68,240		13,302	2,363	16,505	3,205	0	7,799	0	0	43,174

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Antrim Mid

The new seat of Antrim Mid is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	UUP Votes	SDLP Votes	DUP Votes	Alliance Votes	Green Votes	SF Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Antrim Mid
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Cranfield	2,239	Antrim South	346	121	509	78	0	363	0	0	1,417
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Doagh	2,295	Antrim South	573	18	616	116	0	130	0	0	1,453
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Parkgate	2,098	Antrim South	426	62	631	99	0	109	0	0	1,327
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Randalstown	2,512	Antrim South	318	141	482	73	0	575	0	0	1,589
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Shilvodan	2,345	Antrim South	395	126	554	103	0	304	0	0	1,482
Antrim and Newtownabbey	Toome	2,443	Antrim South	294	145	347	33	0	726	0	0	1,545
Causeway Coast and Glens	Clogh Mills	2,642	Antrim North	124	91	886	69	0	414	108	0	1,692
Causeway Coast and Glens	Dunloy	2,425	Antrim North	71	148	689	41	0	530	74	0	1,553
Causeway Coast and Glens	Loughguile and Stranocum	2,549	Antrim North	100	141	768	45	0	486	92	0	1,632
Causeway Coast and Glens	Rasharkin	2,738	Antrim North	123	105	890	53	0	475	108	0	1,754
Mid and East Antrim	Academy	1,911	Antrim North	93	114	740	99	0	97	82	0	1,225
Mid and East Antrim	Ahoghill	2,487	Antrim North	171	24	1,011	123	0	150	114	0	1,593
Mid and East Antrim	Ardeevin	2,459	Antrim North	80	169	909	180	0	127	110	0	1,575
Mid and East Antrim	Ballee and Harryville	2,320	Antrim North	97	22	1,087	58	0	119	104	0	1,487
Mid and East Antrim	Ballykeel	2,266	Antrim North	56	58	995	59	0	132	152	0	1,452
Mid and East Antrim	Braidwater	2,287	Antrim North	19	172	764	52	0	356	102	0	1,465
Mid and East Antrim	Broughshane	2,455	Antrim North	140	35	1,091	94	0	116	98	0	1,574
Mid and East Antrim	Castle Demesne	2,346	Antrim North	25	135	920	97	0	144	181	0	1,502
Mid and East Antrim	Cullybackey	2,021	Antrim North	141	20	836	77	0	125	95	0	1,294
Mid and East Antrim	Fair Green	2,792	Antrim North	25	219	963	100	0	346	136	0	1,789
Mid and East Antrim	Galgorm	2,206	Antrim North	143	21	871	167	0	114	97	0	1,413
Mid and East Antrim	Glenravel	2,309	Antrim North	68	157	691	41	0	462	60	0	1,479
Mid and East Antrim	Glenwhirry	188	Antrim East	9	6	82	6	0	8	0	3	114
Mid and East Antrim	Glenwhirry	1,971	Antrim North	113	42	877	58	0	94	79	0	1,263
Mid and East Antrim	Grange	2,399	Antrim North	127	21	788	116	0	387	97	0	1,536
Mid and East Antrim	Kells	2,386	Antrim North	138	26	1,080	74	0	114	96	0	1,528
Mid and East Antrim	Kirkinriola	2,119	Antrim North	121	57	924	71	0	101	84	0	1,358
Mid and East Antrim	Maine	2,093	Antrim North	139	20	815	80	0	193	93	0	1,340
Mid and East Antrim	Park	2,089	Antrim North	67	169	788	88	0	115	110	0	1,337
Mid and East Antrim	Portglenone	2,134	Antrim North	121	19	721	69	0	348	88	0	1,366
Mid and East Antrim	Slemish	244	Antrim East	10	8	106	8	0	12	0	3	147
Mid and East Antrim	Slemish	1,804	Antrim North	104	41	795	56	0	86	73	0	1,155
	Total	69,572		4,777	2,653	24,226	2,483	0	7,858	2,433	6	44,436

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Antrim Mid. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.